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You know you are getting old when:

2jakes

I'll Lock Up
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9,680
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Alamo Heights ☀️ Texas
Foxy lady!

6sxnk7.jpg

Liba W. Rubenstein
 
Last edited:
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10,834
Location
vancouver, canada
I shared a plane ride back from Edmonton yesterday with a 21 year old newbie sales professional. We worked in different industries but share some of the same customers. I told him about the "old days" of having to find a pay phone to call the office or the factory, and of sending notes over the teletype machine in those ancient pre fax, pre celphone days. And then the amazing advent of the pager that did not really help all that much as I still had to find a damn pay phone that worked to answer the page. He expressed amazement but I could not shake the thought that he really did NOT comprehend that such a time existed and I was in a sense living history of such a time.
 
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12,005
Location
Southern California
When everyone in my family and most of my friends were born in the last century. And beginning with the year 2000. The mention of the years somehow still sounds odd. Most of my life was spent in the 20th. I'm ok with it. Perhaps it's just me and this doesn't make sense. :)
Interesting. I was 20 years old when I married my wife, so after I turned 40 it occurred to me that I had lived as a married man longer than I had not. But I had not otherwise considered a calendar date that held no direct/personal attachment as some form of turning point. Until your post, that is. I was born in 1961, so I won't reach that "living in the 21st century longer than the 20th century" mark until 2039 when I reach the age of 78...assuming I live that long, of course. :cool:
 

Stearmen

I'll Lock Up
Messages
7,202
When everyone in my family and
most of my friends were born in the last century.
And beginning with the year 2000.
The mention of the years somehow still sounds odd.
Most of my life was spent in the
20th.
I'm ok with it.Perhaps it's just
me and this doesn't make sense. :)
I remember when my buddy's and I went to see 2001 A Space Odyssey in 1969, it seemed like a million years in the future not a mere 32! Just dawned on me, next year is the 50th anniversary of 2001. Remember when a 50th anniversary celebration was for an event that happened before you were born?
 

2jakes

I'll Lock Up
Messages
9,680
Location
Alamo Heights ☀️ Texas
I remember when my buddy's and I went to see 2001 A Space Odyssey in 1969, it seemed like a million years in the future not a mere 32! Just dawned on me, next year is the 50th anniversary of 2001. Remember when a 50th anniversary celebration was for an event that happened before you were born?

"Back to the Future 2". (1989)
f7tx3.png
 
Messages
17,193
Location
New York City
Who could have imagined that Texaco wouldn't even exist as a company in 2015.

I've been in finance for a little over three decades and despite all the evidence around us of once can-never-fail companies either failing or being merged after having fallen on hard times, or, at minimum, having gone through some very hard times that they eventually survive (at a much smaller size), the myth of the never-can-fail company persists, not only in the general public, but even amongst financial professionals who should know better.

One of the hardest things in the world to do is to get someone who has most of their money tied up in one very successful company (usually they worked there, got the stock over decades as compensation and never sold a share - and they were lucky to have worked for a company that did well and grew much larger over that time) to diversify (sell some of the shares of that company and buy a broader mix of assets) to protect their financial well being from that one company failing at some point in the future.

Fedora Lounge has a lot of astute member with a good sense of history, but ask the average 30 year old today if Apple or Facebook could be out of business in 2047 and they'll think you are totally crazy - as if you just said the stupidest thing imaginable. Successful longevity at the top of a market is very, very hard to maintain for decades, but the belief that the successful companies of today will do so is very strong - again, despite all the evidence to the contrary.
 
Messages
17,193
Location
New York City
The only company of today that will still exist in recognizable form in 2117 is The Coca-Cola Company, which will have become its own independent nation. Mark my words.

I don't actively follow the company, but at a distance it seems to be struggling a bit as US soda sales have been down for several years now and it doesn't seem to have the product diversification that Pepsi does. I don't think Coca Cola is going anywhere, but its best days are probably behind it. Johnson and Johnson and United Technologies are my two picks for companies that have a good shot of being here and strong in 100 years, but even there, I'd bet against it. Check this out:

  • The Forbes 100. Forbes first came out with the now iconic Forbes top 100 companies in 1917. Care to guess how many of the original top 100 are still on the list? 20? 10? Five?Nope. Just one. GE. In 1987, 18 companies remained on the list from the original. Some 61 had ceased to exist and 21 had sunk in value. Since then, seven more have gone bankrupt (or been acquired). And 10 have sunk in relative value. Leaving GE as the sole survivor.
 
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10,930
Location
My mother's basement
The same might be said for political entities. The Soviet Union went pfffft. I wouldn't predict the same for the USA (not in what remains of my lifetime, anyway), but it's a possibility.
 

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