What if FDR had lived?

[Stanley Doble]

As long as we are talking about alternative history how about this butterfly wing.

In 1960 vice President Richard Nixon was running for President. Some reporters asked President Eisenhower what Nixon's most important contributions as vice President were. Eisenhower replied "give me a week and I might be able to think of something".

This crack coming from the President hurt Nixon badly. Since the 1960 election was the closest ever recorded up to that time, and Nixon lost by only a few thousand votes it is possible that with better support from Eisenhower, Nixon might have been President 8 years sooner.

In that case Kennedy would never have been assassinated. Watergate would never have happened. It is possible the Cold War would have taken a different course. Remember it was Nixon who recognized Red China, something he could do that a liberal could not thanks to his strong anti Communist reputation. A lot of things might have been different. Nixon, a man of real ability despite his faults, might have ended up one of the most esteemed presidents instead of a bum.

 

[Bigger Don]

We're all good.

Well, at least you and I are.

 

[LizzieMaine]

You may be right about Stalin but it is only fair to point out that if it had not been for the threat of the Communist party inside Germany, and the threat of the Soviet Union from the outside Hitler would never have invaded Poland and probably would never have come to power. In other words Stalin and Soviet industrialization were the threat that Hitler was reacting to.

I'm not sure I agree. Regardless of its political configuration, Hitler's antipathy toward Russia was entirely racial in origin. He had long-term designs on that territory, and a definite agenda for its people -- who he considered subhuman creatures -- no matter who was running its government. This is the major difference between Hitler and Stalin. Stalin's interest in expanding territory was a simple question of providing a buffer zone between the USSR and the West. Hitler wanted to exterminate or enslave what he considered to be "untermenschen." Russians and Slavs fell into that category in his worldview. He was above all else a racial imperialist. Politics were only a means toward that end. Had the Bolsheviks never come to power at all, Hitler still would have wanted the "inferior races" eliminated or turned into agricultural slaves for his Greater German Reich, and a barely-out-of-the-feudal-era society such as pre-Bolshevik Russia was would have made it that much easier for him to achieve that goal.

And I'm not so sure he wouldn't have come to power without the Soviet Union to use as a perceived threat. Hitler was a master of manufacturing threats if there weren't any convenient at the moment for his purpose, and certainly if you read Mein Kampf all the way thru and keep a scorecard of "threats" he postulates, you'll have a pretty impressive list by the time you're done. Germany after WW1 was in such a state of chaos that *somebody* dangerous was going to come to power regardless of what was or wasn't going on in Russia and Hitler seems to have been best demagogue in Germany at the time. Without Communists to fight, Social Democrats would have been just as useful for his purpose. And there were always the Jews.

I'm also not sure Hitler wouldn't have invaded Poland in 1939 regardless. His designs on the Danzig corridor had nothing to do with the Soviet Union -- he was in his "reclaim Germanic territory for Germans" phase at the moment, and that piece of dirt was definitely on his agenda. The non-aggression pact with Stalin made that easier, but I believe it would have happened regardless. The one thing that might well have stopped him cold might have been Britain and France accepting Stalin's offer of an alliance in late 1938.

 

[LizzieMaine]

In that case Kennedy would never have been assassinated. Watergate would never have happened. It is possible the Cold War would have taken a different course. Remember it was Nixon who recognized Red China, something he could do that a liberal could not thanks to his strong anti Communist reputation. A lot of things might have been different. Nixon, a man of real ability despite his faults, might have ended up one of the most esteemed presidents instead of a bum.

One huge questions looms for an early Nixon presidency. What about Cuba? Would the Bay of Pigs have been successful? Likely not, it had already been planned and prepared under the Eisenhower Administration, and the identity of the next president would likely have had nothing to do with how it came off. So what does Nixon do in August of 1962? He showed himself reasonably skilled at detente when sitting down with Brezhnev, but that was ten years later. The Nixon of 1962 was still a hard-line cold warrior. Does he cause Khruschev to dig in hard himself? Are we even here today to have this discussion? Or, does Nixon claim the Monroe Doctrine and mount an actual pre-emptive open military invasion of Cuba, regardless of the international consequences? I'm pretty sure he doesn't do the latter -- he was a psychologically-troubled man who spent his whole life compensating for feelings of inadequacy, but he wasn't a fool.

In an ideal situation, "detente Nixon" emerges ten years ahead of schedule, the Cuban crisis is averted, both the US and the USSR avoid meddling in Vietnam, China likewise minds its own business, and everybody learns the value of Peaceful Coexistence. Which, indeed, leads to a very different world, and a thread on the Lounge decades later debating the joint award of the 1963 Nobel Peace Prize to those firm friends Dick and Nik.

 

[MikeKardec]

Based on a lot of the good information here it seems that the, "What if X had lived?" question is more interesting in the case of JFK rather than FDR. FDR had pretty much run his course (politically, health-wise, and too many terms as president) by the time of his death. JFK was just getting started and he had the tendency to get into controversial things both in the terms of the time and as looked upon today. He too had serious health issues (which may have affected some of his decisions) but he was certainly good for a few more years and at nearly as critical a time.

 

[Stanley Doble]

I would have expected Nixon to give the CIA the backing (air support) they wanted. Whether the invasion of Cuba would have succeeded, or caused an all out nuclear war I have no idea. The invasion might well have failed but in a more bloody fashion, and left the US government and Nixon taking the blame.

 

[Stanley Doble]

Hitler's big mission was to protect Germany from outside aggression. He feared France and England but Communism was his big bugbear and he believed Communism was a Jewish plot.

As long as we are theorizing about alternate history how about one more small change. What if Hitler never invaded Poland? What if he waited for the Russians to attack Germany first? We know that was his big fear and the reason for starting the war. But what if he waited?

Suppose the Soviet Union attacked Poland. Hitler appeals to France, England, Italy and the Scandinavian countries to join forces to defend plucky little Poland. He does not move until other European countries agree to join Germany.

We know that in England and the US, resistance to an alliance with Russia was strong. Churchill said frankly that he would make an alliance with the devil to beat Hitler even though he did not like or trust the Russians. At the time, most people would rather have joined Germany against Russia than vice versa. In fact Hitler counted on this.

The allied forces of western Europe push the invaders out of Poland. The Russian parliament deposes Stalin and replaces him with a less warlike leader. Peace is soon restored. The new leader, a moderate, soft pedals the Communist theory and allows economic reforms, similar to what has happened in China, also a nominally Communist country, since the 1980s.

Peace is soon restored. Germany gets some Lebensraum. The Communist menace evaporates. Hitler who was already Time's Man of the Year in 1938 becomes a world hero. The crisis over, the Reichstag calls an end to martial law. After the next election Hitler retires, having been defeated at the polls the way Churchill was after WW2. Militarism, anti Semitism, and all the hallmarks of the Nazi era become passe.

Europe becomes more or less what it was in the mid fifties but 10 years earlier and no Cold War.

 

[LizzieMaine]

I think for Hitler to have done anything differently, someone would have to have put a bullet thru Alfred Rosenberg's head sometime before 1920. Hitler had picked a lot of half-baked pseudo-scientific racialist ideas roiling around among the scum of Vienna before WW1, where conspiratorial anti-Semites were a pfennig a dozen, but he didn't really pick up his coherent master-race theory until he got it from Rosenberg, whom he met thru Dietrich Eckhardt and whose theories brought all of his own jumbled claptrap together into the beliefs that governed everything he did for the rest of his life.

This "volkisch" theory takes up a big chunk of Mein Kampf, and makes it very clear that politics is secondary in every way to Hitler. Politics is only a means to a racial end, and that end is the unquestioned primacy of das Herrenvolk over all of Europe. The need for liebensraum is only a part of that overall plan for Aryan racial hegemony.

And it might also be important to do away with a British racialist named Houston Stewart Chamberlain, whose "Foundations of the Nineteenth Century" was the book that inspired Rosenberg's own theories. Get rid of those two, and Hitler arguably becomes just another gutter loudmouth who disappears into the chaos of postwar Germany, stows away on a boat to America, and kidnaps the Lindbergh Baby. And nobody invades Poland.

 

[Bigger Don]

Would the Bay of Pigs have been successful?

Would Bay of Pigs been attempted? It's well known that the main problem with BoP was group-think, which led to over-optimism.

 

[Stanley Doble]

Would Bay of Pigs been attempted? It's well known that the main problem with BoP was group-think, which led to over-optimism.

The Bay of Pigs invasion was a CIA operation disguised as a spontaneous counter revolution. It was planned during the Eisenhower administration, presumably with Eisenhower's approval. Kennedy attempted to quash it, but they went ahead without his approval and without air support. They thought they could force Kennedy's hand but he refused.

Given that the invasion was planned when Nixon was vice President it seems likely he knew about it and approved, and would have backed the CIA.

 

[Stanley Doble]

Here is a very interesting recording, the only recording of Hitler in private conversation, with Baron Carl Mannerheim, Commander in Chief of the Finnish armed forces. Not many people remember the Finnish war when the Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939.

The occasion was Mannerheim's 75th birthday June 4 1942.

The official speech ends after about 8 minutes. Then there is some informal conversation. Hitler's discussion of the war and how it came about begins about 14 minutes in. He describes how he knew the Soviets wanted war because of the impossible demands made by Molotov and how surprised he was at how well prepared the Soviets were for war.

 

[Bigger Don]

The Bay of Pigs invasion was a CIA operation disguised as a spontaneous counter revolution. It was planned during the Eisenhower administration, presumably with Eisenhower's approval. Kennedy attempted to quash it, but they went ahead without his approval and without air support. They thought they could force Kennedy's hand but he refused.

Given that the invasion was planned when Nixon was vice President it seems likely he knew about it and approved, and would have backed the CIA.

First, it was approved by JFK and his advisors. Second, I'll believe McNamara re the role of groupthink in the decision.

 

[Stanley Doble]

If JFK approved the Bay of Pigs invasion why deny them air support?

 

[Inkstainedwretch]

The Bay of Pigs planners concocted a fantasy where at news of the landings, this vast mass of disgruntled pro-Batista malcontents in Cuba would rise up and overthrow Castro. All it would take was a few hundred Florida Cuban exiles to trigger the uprising. Wishful thinking is notoriously the worst basis for a war plan. I think Kennedy saw pretty quickly that nothing of the sort was happening and withdrew support. His timidity didn't help any, but only full commitment of the U/S. military would have and Kennedy wasn't prepared to go that far.

 

[Bigger Don]

If JFK approved the Bay of Pigs invasion why deny them air support?

If JFK didn't approve Bay of Pigs, why was no one prosecuted?

 

[Stearmen]

TKennedy attempted to quash it, but they went ahead without his approval and without air support.

Actually, that is not true, there was air support! The Alabama Air National Guard was ordered to train sixteen Cuban exile crews to man Douglas B-26 Invader bombers. In any event only eight attacked on that day, and only disabled half of Castro's air force. One mistake by the CIA, was to paint the bombers in the same colors as Castro's B-26s to make it look like a pilot revolt. The men on the beach could not tell the difference, so they shot at all B-26s. On the final day, four crews from the Alabama ANG flew missions, Riley Shamburg and his crew chief, Wade Grey were shot down crashing into the water, there bodies were never recovered, also, Pete Ray and Leo Baker were brought down. They survived the crash but were killed in the ensuing shoot out. Baker was of dark complexion, so his body was thrown into the mass grave of the dead exiles. Pete Ray's body was kept in a morgue, to show the world of Americas involvement. Finally, in 1979, through the work of Pete Ray's daughter, and the continuing diplomacy of the American government, Ray's body was returned and buried with full military honors and acknowledgment of his contribution that day! The CIA awarded posthumously all four men the Distinguished Intelligence Cross, the CIA's highest award for bravery. The greatest irony was, the USS Essex was suppose to supply fighter cover, unfortunately, they arrived just after the remaining B-26s had headed home. http://www.encyclopediaofalabama.org/article/h-2134