Time to Buy Some Jackets (or Gold)

[tropicalbob]

There's a good article today by John Cassidy in The New Yorker about why and how the Brexit probably won't happen. It's one of the few sane things I've read. I wouldn't mind hearing some thoughts on it from our friends in GB.

 

[Hal]

...yes...when the dust settles, our societal structure will be the thin shallow layer just above the dust. The 'wait and see' attitude of Vote Leave, imagine that Great Britain's horsehide is only getting better with time. It doesn't! When you shred a horsehide jacket apart, all that's left is not hope.

Nor does the shredded jacket ever return to its older better condition, as many Leave voters fondly imagine it would. Nostalgia, jealousy and fear seem to rule society in England and Wales. And what has happened to the traditional internationalism of the workers of the old industrial areas of south Wales and north-east England?

It's ...a screwed up vestige of what was once united: now divided, and going through many more multiplications of long internal and unthought-of complicated divisions...and intolerance for each other's Vote Leave or Remain politics.

Sadly, all you write is true.

SOS! We need a Scottish seamstress to put us back together again.

Nicola Sturgeon is impressive, but that is not her politics. Might the impressive new Scottish Tory leader do that job?

 

[Lean'n'mean]

hmmm... will Boris be the next prime-minister?

That is indeed what Mr. Boris 'Trump' Johnson is aiming for, he was at the vanguard of the Brexit campaign with the firm intention of plumping his chubby ass on the throne at No.10.
The UK, for the time being, is still a member of the E.U.( thus continuing to benefit from it's membership) & will remain so until the head of the British government offers an official letter to the European parliament informing them they wish to invoke article 50, which is the get out clause. David Cameron, the current prime minister, has declared he will leave that to his successor ( Cameron will leave on the 3rd September) & even Johnson himself has stated " There is no rush to start proceedings" ......meanwhile, the other European leaders are champing at the bit as they wish to get the ball rolling as soon as possible. Once the UK's exit has been put into action, there will follow a long period ( estimated around 2 years) where the UK will negociate it's current treaties & engagements to the satisfaction of all parties. Once all legal ties have been severed, the UK will then have to open up new trade & investment agreements with the rest of Europe.
Let us not forget that the Brexit referendum was organized by politicians for their own agendas & so we can be sure of one thing.....voters from all sides are going to get shafted.

 

[Hal]

...yes...when the dust settles, our societal structure will be the thin shallow layer just above the dust. The 'wait and see' attitude of Vote Leave, imagine that Great Britain's horsehide is only getting better with time. It doesn't! When you shred a horsehide jacket apart, all that's left is not hope.

Nor does the jacket go back to its former good condition. Nostalgia, fear and jealousy are abroad in England and Wales.

It's ...a screwed up vestige of what was once united: now divided, and going through many more multiplications of long internal and unthought-of complicated divisions... us from the EU; us from the financial centres of the world, which will see large corporations lmove out of the UK into the EU; us from the single European airspace, which will see our airports nosedive in use by transit travellers; our financial banking centres which will risk seeing haemorrhaging capital flight on a slow scale; dividing of generations of people; dividing families, piting parent against child with conflicting votes and intolerance for each other's Vote Leave or Remain politics.

Sadly, all you say is true. And where is the traditional internationalism of the working-class of the old industrial areas of south Wales and north-eastern England?

SOS! We need a Scottish seamstress to put us back together again.

Nicola Sturgeon is formidable, but I don't think those are her politics. Might the impressive new Conservative leader be the person you are thinking of?

 

[Benproof]

There's a good article today by John Cassidy in The New Yorker about why and how the Brexit probably won't happen. It's one of the few sane things I've read. I wouldn't mind hearing some thoughts on it from our friends in GB.

I'm not sure you can rely on any sane reasoning to come out of the UK at the moment. I find the commentaries from Le Monde (France), The New Yorker and Reuters are interesting speculation pieces, but have their fingers off the pulse.

Reuters sees Cameron's deliberate 10 week period before the new Conservative election to replace him, as a stalling process for someone else to carry the can for Brexit. He can hand that poisoned chalice to someone else...and Boris would have to be very stupid to take it up, however his indulged sense of entitlement and narcissistic personality will compete with stupidity. Current government have the power to veto or block Brexit temporarily by pushing for a second referendum. The government cannot act decisively now that Cameron has called an election in less than 10 weeks: this is what we call a double bind. That is, the Brexit motion has to be paralysed, and no one will invoke Article 10 for 10 weeks of government lack of leadership.

William the Conqueror didn't piss around in 1066, nor did Henry VIII, when he seceded from the European political centre. In 2016 - we are precisely doing that in the UK: pissing around, due to lack of leadership.

Then the decision about going for Brexit, delaying Brexit, or rejecting it is not the problem.

Apart from the failure of leadership here, this is a problem caused by an unforeseen, but palpable division in the UK: if we were 100% all behind Brexit, it wouldn't be so problematic. If we were even 75% behind Brexit it wouldn't be a problem. But 52% for leaving, vs 48% staying, and the demographic characteristics are very striking and irreconciliable in views. This division in society isn't going to be unified by one party.

Cassidy is a newsreporter and needs some speculation to keep his interesting articles flowing. There are so many challenges to follow through a Brexit plan which requires around 8-10 years before completion, even if 2 years after an invoked Article 50 has been started. To trigger Brexit in the middle of a middle eastern war; economic recession; failure of high street shops like Austin Reed and BHS; failed politics in government; Putin at our doorstep with the missile shield deployment in Poland, would be incredibly short-sighted, especially after the evidence of the crisis across the world that those 52% of voters have caused.

They don't want to "know". They say: "I have no regrets" "I want my country back." That is just their mindset. They want bread queues, rationing and heating homes by burning paper or logs when French EDF energy becomes taxed and the UK only produces 1/3rd of its food, importing the rest. The shitty little little mindset which they have, is not the kind of country I grew up in.

 

[Benproof]

Nor does the shredded jacket ever return to its older better condition, as many Leave voters fondly imagine it would. Nostalgia, jealousy and fear seem to rule society in England and Wales. And what has happened to the traditional internationalism of the workers of the old industrial areas of south Wales and north-east England?

Sadly, all you write is true.

Nicola Sturgeon is impressive, but that is not her politics. Might the impressive new Scottish Tory leader do that job?

Half of the people I know, voted to leave. Like you described: some deluded themselves into thinking they were voting for a romanticised 'ye olde worlde' of the UK (whilst conveniently forgetting about Victorian sweatshops for children and child abuse, as well as deprivation of womens' liberty). Others feel resentment - probably at targets like me who represent everything they hate: being a multi-linguist; living and travelling in Europe freely without visas, bringing my French friends over to the UK for weekends; bringing my Polish friends over for motorcycle rides and enjoying the brotherhood of being with others.

Ironically, the lower ethics of voting for fear of foreigners, will only slap the Brexit voters inclined this way, to even greater irony: foreign investment and purchase power has rocketed since the Brexit voters crashed the £ sterling, and properties are being bought up by foreign conglomerates who see the £ at its weakest. These very Brexit voters will be paying rent to some foreign landlord in the back of their little nimby home.

I like Nicola, but as you say, Mary Queen of Scots she ain't lol!

 

[Joao Encarnado]

England says they will honor people's vote... EU says the UK must honor people's vote...