Do you think there could be a second Great Depression?

[PrettySquareGal]

Sequestration.

 

[SSuperDave]

The fourth estate is FAR less interested in reporting the news than they are in creating it.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

Dow lost 1,000 at opening.........

 

[Stanley Doble]

And got it all back by the close. When the bear comes it won't be a one day event. It will be a slow grind with many reversals designed to keep people from selling until it is too late.

This may be a warm up to the main event but it is not the main event.

 

[LizzieMaine]

Agreed. The Big Crash in 1929 was preceded by a series of severe hiccups before the collapse.

That said, I have no doubt at all that eventually the current economic system will collapse. There's no such thing as infinite growth.

 

[HudsonHawk]

And got it all back by the close. When the bear comes it won't be a one day event. It will be a slow grind with many reversals designed to keep people from selling until it is too late.

This may be a warm up to the main event but it is not the main event.

It didn't get it all back. It closed down 588 points. It's down another 86 points as I type.

 

[Edward]

Agreed. The Big Crash in 1929 was preceded by a series of severe hiccups before the collapse.

That said, I have no doubt at all that eventually the current economic system will collapse. There's no such thing as infinite growth.

Somewhere Karl Marx is raising an eyebrow and muttering "I told you so."

 

[HungaryTom]

I saw the youtube posts about the fear porn of a dollar collapse coming and that the USA is collapsing and the world and Pax Americana -that provides the background for global things like logistics, internet, e-commerce, global tourism - are all collapsing and how the physical gold and silver you hold will save you from all the calamity - They wont. If the worst happens and democracy and consumer society turns into an Orwellian dictatorship and your city on a shining hill into the Civil war of 1861-1865 mixed with Terminator, then the possession of gold/precious metals, diamonds can be made illegal just like opium and cocaine and morphine were legal somewhere in the 19th/early 20th and now they are not. Alcohol is now available and it was temporarily prohibited in the US and also restricted in the Soviet era and just like holding gold and dollars were prohibited in Communist times. Just like guns can be confiscated.
There was no investment gold bar or silver available at all. Stocking the cellar with canned food with a stock for 3 weeks or 4 months wont help in case of a thermonuclear war, or a prolonged hunger of several years, since you cannot shoot all the hungry guys or half-wild soldiers and armed gangs and hungry people with nothing to loose, searching for food. Or with another decree the state orders food rationing and hoarders will be dealt with martial law. If there is a WAR or a Depression for a decade there is no money on the earth that saves you. If there is a war or an extinction level comet coming then simply get right with your friends and family and God, don't "prepare" - just pray. Saving, and preparing is only for normality - i.e. to save, for normal goals, like the children s tuition, healthcare and medication, housing renovations etc. etc. to consume less than you earn. Like less smart animals do in nature too - ants, bees, squirrels, jaybirds etc. Holding then assets which keep their value is a smart thing - I don't even expect gold to quadruple, with inflation it did not quadruple in the last 15 years, just the purchasing power of currencies dropped. I remember, my first (at those times quite good) monthly salary from 1989 would buy now a lunch for 2 in a restaurant. I satisfy myself if the "money" I hold is not inflated away while I hold it. FED holds officially 3/4 of its reserves in gold, European major central banks like Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banca di Italia 2/3 in gold. Yes you cant eat gold but Berkshire Hathaway stocks and treasury bonds aren't tasty either....Central banks, are the keepers of the keepers the capo di capi tutti of the entire current global financial system and they still hold gold. The FED confiscated even German gold, telling the Krauts that they cannot even SEE their stock held in the NY vaults, - this is the true price of their contribution to the Pax Americana so the Amis do all the foreign wars, the astronomical costs of wars, the resulting deficit and bloodletting with own soldiers and Germans can trade their cars and other quality goods worldwide. Germans also took our gold in WW2 to Bavaria from where it was returned -by the Americans....Later, we also had to pay for the Soviets, financing Afghanistan, Mozambique, Angola, Latin-America, adventures, the arms race, all the bases worldwide, all the communist parties worldwide etc. This is not different here either, I guess. So why pretend to understand financials better than banks and wanting to try to outsmart them. Just follow that example.

I personally got safely all the goods and services from the USA, EU, Australia and in a quality and price as described. The Western way - the price was not cheap and the transport was not cheap either, but I got what I wanted. Not the ex-Communist Hungarian way where they fake you at the market of giving you the rotten fruits from below the counter even if you point at the 1st grade specimens at the display. Or not the Congo way, where it is even unsafe that you return home safe. My montecristi fino did not turn into Cuenca hats while they were blocked or the beaver felts did not turn rabbit fur during delivery. Pax Americana.

Wolfensohn told about the inevitable shift worldwide how the world of tomorrow will change the distribution of wealth between the North/South from 80/20 to 35/65 in favour of developing nations while the population will o to 9 billion and the "North" will remain 1 billion strong and the emerging nations and the "rest" of the world will explode its population. This will also imply many changes in living standards and lifestyles. Resources are not infinite, the planet is already overpopulated, which is clearly shown in the de facto mass extinction of animals and plant species and the disappearance of entire ecosystems. Whether you believe in climate change or not.

Even if demographics work unfavourably for the WASP elite, the principles of a society can be kept for much longer than the actual numerical majority, even centuries longer, if only the elite has a clear vision and determination to lead. Like in Sparta, Rome, Byzantine, etc.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

Dow on Track for Worst Month in Six Years After Fresh Selloff
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1342...-fresh-wave-of-worries-over-energy-china.html

Dow has worst four-day start to a year on record
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-dow-china/

Closing of 27 Kmart, Sears Stores Follows News of Macy's Cutbacks
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/kmart-sears-closings-macys/2016/01/14/id/709456/#ixzz3xKmTnsAR

Macy's closings could leave a trail of dead malls
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/11/news/companies/macys-dead-malls/

The shuttering of 36 Macy’s stores could impact more than $530 million in commercial mortgage-backed securities loans
http://therealdeal.com/2016/01/14/m...with-530m-in-cmbs-loans/#sthash.PftbK282.dpuf

Like Macy's, J.C. Penney to Close Stores in 2016
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13421387/1/like-macy-s-j-c-penney-to-close-stores-in-2016.html

Wal-Mart to close 269 stores as it retools fleet
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/wal-mart-to-close-269-stores-as-it-retools-fleet.html

I'm sure you realize you don't need to shop at these stores or have investments to be impacted. I feel bad for the people losing their jobs, and the collateral damage from the closures.

 

[Harp]

Sequestration.

The Fed must be having some interesting thoughts on this nightmare. A crash dive Dow -524; crude at $29 barrel; China's yuan dropped 16.19%;
the US M2 velocity at 1.531; and real unemployment hovers close to 10%. A global economic contraction beyond mere palliative measure.

 

[LizzieMaine]

"The foolish man built his house upon the sand."

 

[kaiser]

It looks like it is a race to the bottom right now:

http://www.theguardian.com/business...at-2016-financial-crisis-warns-city-pessimist

 

[Inkstainedwretch]

Shortly before his death in 2012, Ray Bradbury wrote: "People only call what's going on now a depression because they've never seen a real one." He lived through the real one and personally knew neighbors who committed suicide because for year after year they could not get work and provide for their families.

 

[JimWagner]

This thread was started almost exactly 8 years ago. What does that say?

 

[Inkstainedwretch]

That we're all 8 years older. Damn.

 

[LizzieMaine]

Not that long a stretch of time, though. There are things in my refrigerator older than that.

 

[Stearmen]

Two things I can always count on: 1. every year is the end of times, 2. every year is the beginning of the next Great Depression!

 

[Trenchfriend]

Since years, fully market-saturation is fact. Everbody have got their entertainment-electronics, that they wanted to have. We have got all we wanted. China and so on can't sell well, anymore.
And everday life-technologies are exhausted, since years, I think.

The market-economy can't open new sales markets, because all possible is done, I think.

 

[Lean'n'mean]

Since years, fully market-saturation is fact. Everbody have got their entertainment-electronics, that they wanted to have. We have got all we wanted. China and so on can't sell well, anymore.
And everday life-technologies are exhausted, since years, I think.

The market-economy can't open new sales markets, because all possible is done, I think.

You're forgetting built in obsolescence.

 

[Trenchfriend]

Yes, and consumer-electronics are still not age-appropiate, too complicated.